Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
